One last horse-race number from Ontario’s election campaign

As you probably know if you spent much time around here during Ontario’s election campaign, we put a fair amount of time and effort into trying to understand the perspectives of voters.

The idea of the Listening Post project that Innovative Research Group did for us was to get beyond the usual horse-race polling that tends to dominate coverage, and get a better grasp on why people would vote the way they did. So we opted not to report the horse-race numbers from this research at all – because that really wasn’t the point, and we didn’t want those numbers to overshadow the more in-depth stuff, and because the idea was to produce information that would hold up regardless of who won.

That said, as we continue to roll out a bit more of the numbers-behind-the-numbers this week, we can have a little extra confidence in this research. Because if we had reported the horse-race figures that Innovative Research showed us the day before the election, that company would be getting to do a little crowing about now.

Here, for the record, are the final decided-voter numbers based on a weighted sample of 526 Listening Post respondents who participated in an online panel between June 8 and June 10.  Other than some modest upward movement by the NDP in the campaign’s final days, these were fairly consistent with what Innovative Research saw (often with larger samples) through the campaign’s final weeks – a strong Liberal lead over a PC Party with a lower share of the popular vote than most other polls were suggesting.

Decided-voter numbers

Based on a weighted sample of 526 Listening Post respondents.

SOURCE: Innovative Research Group

And here, in case you don’t have such things committed to memory, is what popular vote turned out to be once the ballots had been counted on June 12.

Popular vote

Again, the horse race really wasn’t the point here. But if nothing else, it’s nice to know that when it came to voting intentions, the people who were helping us get a better read on the electorate were apparently pretty reflective of that electorate at large.

polls
Filed under: Ontario Election

Hudak bet Liberals wouldn’t bother to vote. Here’s how he was wrong

This morning, I wrote broadly about how some very incorrect assumptions led Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservative astray. It’s perhaps worth a closer look at a few numbers that tell the story.

Mr. Hudak’s strategy revolved largely around the premise that in battleground ridings, particularly in the Greater Toronto, turnout among PC voters would be higher than among likely Liberals. If it failed, members of his campaign team predicted, it would be because the NDP collapsed and failed to split the centre-left vote.

What didn’t seem to concern most Tories was the prospect of Liberal supporters being as motivated as their own – let alone more motivated.

And yet, if one compares this election’s results in those battlegrounds to the results from 2011, it appears that’s exactly what happened. Increases in Liberal votes surpassed increases in PC votes (if the PC votes went up at all) in virtually any riding it’s worth looking at, and not significantly at the expense of the New Democrats.

Here, for example, is the difference in 2011 and 2014 vote totals in Richmond Hill - the sort of bellwether GTA riding the Tories probably needed to take in order to win government.

Election results in Richmond Hill

That one, like a bunch of others, was at least kind of a wash – which is better for the Tories than what can be said about Mississauga-Erindale, where the Tories thought they had a chance of taking out an incumbent (Harinder Takhar) who didn’t even decide to seek re-election until the campaign had started.

Election results in Mississauga-Erindale

Not only did this phenomenon prevent the Tories from taking Liberal seats; it also accounted for them losing ones they’d long held. The most dramatic example, where the Tories seemed to also suffer for supporters deserting them for other parties, might be Durham – a riding that was vacated by veteran PC MPP John O’Toole when he retired:

Election results in Durham

And venturing over to the province’s southwest, where the Liberals were supposed to be losing seats rather than gaining them, here’s what happened to incumbent PC MPP Rob Leone in Cambridge:

Election results in Cambridge

I could go on, but you probably get the general drift.

As a side note, while still nowhere near winning anywhere, the Green Party experienced more growth than one might have expected. Whether that’s a tribute to Green Leader Mike Schreiner or just a reflection of none-of-the-above sentiments is probably best left to another day.

For now, we’re still sorting through why the Liberals did better than most anyone expected and the Tories much worse. An important caveat with the turnout story is that it’s probably not a completely straightforward one. For instance, the Tories may have motivated more of their base than previously, while losing some of their more moderate supporters to the other parties.

Still, looking at the above numbers, it’s hard not to think that the Tories vastly overestimated their motivation skills, and vastly underestimated how much Ms. Wynne – with a big assist from Mr. Hudak – could motivate Liberals.

analysistim hudak
Filed under: Ontario Election

Hudak to resign as PC leader: ‘We did not receive the results we wanted’

Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak, right, announced will be stepping down as party leader after being defeated.

Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak, right, announced he will be stepping down as party leader after being defeated, at his headquarters in Grimsby, Ont. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

Tim Hudak won his riding of Niagara West-Glanbrook, and will stay on as MPP.

tim hudak
Filed under: Ontario Election

Two surprising results for Toronto in Ontario election

Toronto saw a couple surprising losses in the Ontario election, with a long-time NDP MPP getting turfed and another politician in a key west-end riding also being voted out of office.

Reaction was swift, and for some, sad.

As in the tweet above, some on social media were quick to assign blame. Liberal candidate Han Dong won by a margin of 6,917 votes.

In Etobicoke-Lakeshore, former deputy mayor Doug Holyday found himself without a seat less than a year after he won it for the PCs in a by-election.

Mr. Milczyn won by 6,201 votes.

Like Mr. Marchese, Mr. Holyday has had a long political career.

analysis
Filed under: Ontario Election

Who won in five key ridings

The polls have closed in Ontario’s 41st general election. Here are some key races that were crucial to deciding the outcome.

Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Doug Holyday (centre)   stands with wife Franca and PC leader Tim Hudak  after winning   the Ontario by-election as Doug Ford watches,  on Thursday August 1, 2013.  (Chris Young for The Globe and Mail)

Doug Holyday (centre) stands with wife Franca and PC leader Tim Hudak after winning the Ontario by-election as Doug Ford watches, on Thursday August 1, 2013. (Chris Young for The Globe and Mail)

Liberal candidate Peter Milczyn won the riding, deafeating PC candidate and former Toronto deputy mayor Doug Holyday.

Holyday won the riding by a tight margin in a 2013 by-election, beating out his former city hall colleague, Peter Milczyn.

Etobicoke-Lakeshore was the only Tory riding in Toronto. Mr. Milczyn’s victory returns the riding to the Liberals, who controlled it for 10 years before Mr. Holyday’s win.

This time however, Mr. Holyday didn’t have Etobicoke natives Rob and Doug Ford campaigning for him. The Toronto mayor is still in rehab.

Etobicoke-Lakeshore, 2013 by-election

Brampton-Springdale

Liberal candidate Harinder Malhi, right, campaigns door-door with members of the SEIU healthcare union in the riding of Brampton-Springle, Tuesday June 10, 2014.  (J.P. Moczulski for The Globe and Mail)

Liberal candidate Harinder Malhi, right, campaigns door-door with members of the SEIU healthcare union in the riding of Brampton-Sprindale, Tuesday June 10, 2014. (J.P. Moczulski for The Globe and Mail)

Harinder Malhi has won the riding, keeping it in Liberal hands.

The Liberals narrowly managed to hold on to this riding in 2011, when PC candidate Pam Hundal lost by fewer than 3,000 votes to high-profile incumbent Linda Jeffrey. Ms. Jeffrey gave up her seat in March, however, to run in Brampton’s mayoral race and was replaced by Malhi in this election.

NDP candidate Gurpreet Dhillon had hoped to sweep up the riding in the same orange wave that won Bramalea-Gore-Malton for the party in 2011. The NDP gathered just 15 per cent of the vote in the last election.

Brampton-Springdale, 2011 election

Peterborough

Jeff Leal , Minister of Rural Affairs, speaks to the media following the swearing in of Kathleen Wynne was sworn in as Ontario's first female premier, on Feb. 11, 2013. (Peter Power/ The Globe and Mail)

Jeff Leal, Minister of Rural Affairs, speaks to the media following the swearing in of Kathleen Wynne on Feb. 11, 2013. (Peter Power/ The Globe and Mail)

Peterborough has remained one of Ontario’s bellwether ridings, re-electing Liberal Jeff Leal.

Peterborough has voted for the party that won the most seats in that election since the late 1970s.

Leal, who was minister of rural affairs, was up against PC candidate Scott Stewart and NDP’s Sheila Wood.

Ottawa West-Nepean, 2011 elections

Niagara Falls

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, left, and local candidate Wayne Gates, right, speaks to supporters at the Italia Ice Cream shop during a campaign stop in Niagara Falls, Ont., on Thursday, June 5, 2014. Nathan Denette

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, left, and local candidate Wayne Gates, right, speaks to supporters at the Italia Ice Cream shop during a campaign stop in Niagara Falls, Ont., on Thursday, June 5, 2014. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press)

It looks like NDP MP Wayne Gates will head back to Queen’s Park, landing far ahead in the polls from his opponents with about 50 per cent of the vote, now that most polls have returned results.

PC candidate Bart Maves has secured only 30 per cent so far, a larger gap than when he lost to Mr. Gates by about 1,000 votes in a by-election earlier this year.

Candidates from all three major parties spent plenty of time trying to woo voters in the riding during their campaigns.

Niagara Falls, 2014 by-election

Ottawa West-Nepean

Liberal Energy Minister Bob Chiarelli takes questions from the media following Ontario auditor general Jim McCarter's press conference at Queen's Park in Toronto about the cancellation of the Mississauga power plant, on Monday, April 15, 2013.  THE CANADIAN PRESS/Matthew Sherwood

Liberal Energy Minister Bob Chiarelli takes questions from the media on Monday, April 15, 2013. (Matthew Sherwood/The Canadian Press)

Liberal cabinet minister Bob Chiarelli has managed to keep his seat in Ottawa West-Nepean.

There was speculation that Chiarelli was in danger of losing his seat as the PCs tried to squeeze their way into the Liberal stronghold in the Ottawa region.

In 2011, he won by just 2 per cent of the vote against PC candidate Randall Denley, who was competing for the seat again in this election.

Ottawa West-Nepean, 2011 election

analysis
Filed under: Ontario Election

Liberals’ HQ elated amid news of majority win

Ontario Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne speaks to supporters after winning the Ontario election in Toronto on Thursday June 12, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn

Ontario Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne speaks to supporters after winning the Ontario election in Toronto on Thursday June 12, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn


Kathleen Wynne spoke to supporters in Toronto after media outlets reported her party won a majority government Thursday night.

Pumped-up Liberal supporters celebrated at the election-night headquarters.

Supporters watch results at Ontario Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne's provincial election night headquarters in Toronto, June 12, 2014. REUTERS/Mark Blinch

Supporters watch results at Ontario Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne’s provincial election night headquarters in Toronto, June 12, 2014. REUTERS/Mark Blinch

Ontario Liberal Party supporters celebrate after a Liberal Party majority government was called at the election party headquarters of leader Kathleen Wynne in Toronto, June 12, 2014.  REUTERS/Mark Blinch (CANADA  - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS)

Ontario Liberal Party supporters celebrate after a Liberal Party majority government was called at the election party headquarters of leader Kathleen Wynne in Toronto, June 12, 2014. REUTERS/Mark Blinch 

Ontario Liberal Party staff members celebrate after a Liberal Party majority government was called at the election party headquarters of leader Kathleen Wynne in Toronto, June 12, 2014. REUTERS/Mark Blinch (CANADA  - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS)

Ontario Liberal Party staff members celebrate after a Liberal Party majority government was called at the election party headquarters of leader Kathleen Wynne in Toronto, June 12, 2014. 

The mood at the PC headquarters was much more subdued. Polls had put party leader Tim Hudak neck-in-neck with the Liberals. But on Election Day, that wasn’t the case.

A supporter of Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak watches the election results come in for Ontario's provincial election in Grimsby, Ontario June 12, 2014. REUTERS/Fred Thornhill (CANADA  - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS)

A supporter of Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak watches the election results come in for Ontario’s provincial election in Grimsby, Ontario June 12, 2014. REUTERS/Fred Thornhill 

Ontario PC supporters watch the results come in at Tim Hudak's election night party in Grimsby, Ontario on Thursday June 12, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

Ontario PC supporters watch the results come in at Tim Hudak’s election night party in Grimsby, Ontario on Thursday June 12, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

An Ontario PC supporter reacts as he watches the results come in at Tim Hudak's election night party in Grimsby, Ontario on Thursday June 12, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

An Ontario PC supporter reacts as he watches the results come in at Tim Hudak’s election night party in Grimsby, Ontario on Thursday June 12, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

And in Hamilton, a handful of supporters were present for NDP Leader Andrea Horwath’s election-night event.

Supporters watch results at Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Andrea Horwath's provincial election night headquarters in Hamilton, Ontario June 12, 2014.  REUTERS/Aaron Harris (CANADA  - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS)

Supporters watch results at Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Andrea Horwath’s provincial election night headquarters in Hamilton, Ontario June 12, 2014. REUTERS/Aaron Harris 

A sparse crowd watches television coverage as election results are tallied at the Ontario NDP election night party for Leader Andrea Horwath in Stoney Creek, Ont., Thursday, June 12, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Lynett

A sparse crowd watches television coverage as election results are tallied at the Ontario NDP election night party for Leader Andrea Horwath in Stoney Creek, Ont., Thursday, June 12, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Lynett

 

andrea horwathkathleen wynneOn the bustim hudak
Filed under: Ontario Election

Kathleen Wynne leads Ontario Liberals back to power

Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne delivered a victory speech to an excited crowd in Toronto after the party won a majority government Thursday night.

Supporters watch results at Ontario Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne's provincial election night headquarters in Toronto, June 12, 2014. REUTERS/Mark Blinch

Supporters watch results at Ontario Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne’s provincial election night headquarters in Toronto, June 12, 2014. REUTERS/Mark Blinch

The latest seat count:

In a speech Thursday night, Tim Hudak resigned as Leader of the Progressive Conservatives. 

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath also addressed her supporters.

With the exception of a handful of stations, polls closed in Ontario’s election at 9 p.m. ET. (Get real-time riding results from across the province with our map.)

Snap analysis from Globe reporter Adrian Morrow:

While the Liberals seem stoked, it’s a very different story at the PC and NDP election-night headquarters:

See more reaction from supporters here.

Political junkies will have their eyes on these key five ridings. Toronto also saw some interesting losses, including the ousting of former deputy mayor Doug Holyday.

Meanwhile,  Éric Grenier of ThreeHundredEight.com,  weighed in on how well the polls did at predicting a Liberal majority.

analysis
Filed under: Ontario Election

Voting hours extended in three Ontario ridings

Elections Ontario has extended voting hours in three ridings, citing  “minor delays.”

Voters in Kenora-Rainy River will have an extra hour to cast their ballots at the Mitaanjigamiing First Nation and the Naicatchewenin First Nation band offices. Media reports say flooding washed out some roads in the area.

Three polling stations in Toronto’s Trinity-Spadina district will stay open until 9:30 p.m. Affected polls are at Fly Condominium, Lumiere Condominium on Bay and at Leonardo Court.

Meanwhile,  five polling stations at the Margaret Dunn Library in Dufferin-Caledon will also remain open until 9:30 p.m.

On Election Day, polling hours usually run from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. (ET).

election day
Filed under: Ontario Election

Ontario election-night headquarters decorated in red, blue and orange

After weeks of campaigning, it’s time to party.

Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne will be at the Sheraton hotel in downtown Toronto after the polls close tonight.

A volunteer prepares signs at the Liberal party's election night headquarters in Toronto prior to the polls closing for the Ontario provincial election on Thursday, June 12, 2014. DARREN CALABRESE/THE CANADIAN PRESS

A volunteer prepares signs at the Liberal party’s election night headquarters in Toronto prior to the polls closing for the Ontario provincial election on Thursday, June 12, 2014. DARREN CALABRESE/THE CANADIAN PRESS

Meanwhile, PC Leader Tim Hudak will wait for election results at the Mountain Ridge Community Centre in Grimsby, near Hamilton.

A party worker assembles signs ahead of Ontario PC Leader Tim Hudak's election night party in Grimsby, Ontario on Thursday June 12, 2014. CHRIS YOUNG/THE CANADIAN PRESS

A party worker assembles signs ahead of Ontario PC Leader Tim Hudak’s election night party in Grimsby, Ontario on Thursday June 12, 2014. CHRIS YOUNG/THE CANADIAN PRESS

And after mainstreeting, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath will end the night at Grand Olympian in her hometown of Hamilton.

On the bus
Filed under: Ontario Election

Elections Ontario cracks down on ballot pictures posted to social media

Elections Ontario took to Twitter on Thursday to ask people who posted pictures of their ballots to remove them from the social-media site.

One of those people was Simon Houpt, The Globe’s senior media writer. He included a picture of his unmarked ballot with a tongue-in-cheek tweet.

tweet1

Mr. Houpt replied with:

But he wasn’t the only one to get called out.

According to The Canadian Press, a spokeswoman for Elections Ontario said they have only been in touch with a handful of voters. It’s unclear right now whether the agency will pursue the matter further.

social media
Filed under: Ontario Election
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