Home » Politics Live

Another Ontario election soon after this one? Don’t count on it

Standing in front of a statue of a bicycle-riding Jack Layton to rather unsubtly push back against claims that she’s abandoned her party’s roots, Andrea Horwath did not sound like someone overly eager to work with either of the other parties in another minority legislature. She wanted to be “100 per cent clear,” she said, that she had no intention of supporting Tim Hudak’s government-slashing plan; nor did she intend to support “corrupt Liberals.”

Considering the likelihood that another minority legislature is exactly what we’re headed for, with Ms. Horwath’s NDP again the third party, such talk is likely to spur speculation that the next government will be extremely short-lived.

The reality, though, is that however nasty this campaign might be getting in its final leg – and however much Ms. Horwath and others seem to be backing themselves into corners – a couple of factors make it unlikely that the province’s politicians will imminently be back on the campaign trail.

One is the possibility of leadership changes. It’s widely expected that if the Liberals win back government, Mr. Hudak will step aside. It’s less of a sure thing that Kathleen Wynne will exit if the Liberals lose, but there’s at least a chance of that. And either way, if the NDP doesn’t make gains, Andrea Horwath could be on her way out as well. If any of the parties is in the midst of a leadership contest, it will be highly reluctant to force another election - giving whoever is in office at least a bit of leeway.

The other, based on watching this campaign, is that the parties would be very hard-pressed financially to fight another election battle shortly thereafter.

That applies, in particular, to the New Democrats. We won’t know until after the election is done how much was raised and spent, but it certainly looks like they’ve been very short on cash even this time around. While they often get outspent by the other two parties, it’s been more noticeable than usual – particularly when it comes to television advertising, which is one of the better barometers.

That may have something to do with unions, annoyed by the NDP’s decision to defeat a left-leaning budget and chance Mr. Hudak’s Tories getting elected, putting away their chequebooks and being reluctant to back up loans. It may also point to lackluster grassroots fundraising. Whatever the case, if the NDP is struggling to pay for this campaign, it’s hard to see how it could pay for anything resembling a competitive effort months later.

Whichever of the Liberal or Tories winds up in opposition could be challenged on the financial front. Both those parties have much better fundraising operations than the NDP, but the corporate cash they both partly rely on is hard to drum up quickly when you’re not in government.

Sooner or later, like pretty much every minority legislature, this one would become unsustainable. But for all the tough talk now, there would be incentive to keep it going for a good while.

analysis
Filed under: Ontario Election

Teachers get back to work in B.C. classrooms

Grade Six teacher David Murphy welcomes students on the first day of school, 2012, at Simon Fraser Elementary School in Vancouver. Similar scenes will play out across B.C. on Monday and Tuesday. (John Lehmann/The Globe and Mail)

Grade Six teacher David Murphy welcomes students on the first day of school, 2012, at Simon Fraser Elementary School in Vancouver. Similar scenes will play out across B.C. on Monday and Tuesday. (John Lehmann/The Globe and Mail)

On a day when teachers returned to classrooms around the province with varying levels of enthusiasm (see pictures below from Twitter and Instagram), we say it’s a good time to end the B.C. teachers’ strike liveblog and leave Politics Live to upcoming municipal election campaigns. Thanks for reading and sharing.

Remember to pick up a copy of Saturday’s Globe and Mail newspaper for extended coverage of the end of the labour dispute.

schoolsteachers

Back to school, back to dealing with school issues

With the drama of bargaining, picket lines and rallies finally in the past, teachers, parents and students can now turn their attention to returning to classes next week. That means all those back-to-school pointers and advice columns the rest of Canada read before Labour Day are suddenly relevant for readers in B.C. Here’s a sampling:

Resist the back-to-school overspending tyranny

A helpful personal finance column by Rob Carrick urges parents to mind their budgets by thinking twice before upgrading perfectly good technology, skipping a few extraneous items on school-supply lists and saying no to those buy-one-get-one-half-off-another sales.

Read the full article here.


 

How to help kids stay cool about back to school

Psychologist and author Sara Dimerman advises on preparing kids for expected anxieties at different school levels. For example:

Grade 1 is both exciting and anxiety-provoking. Your child is likely standing tall knowing that he has joined ranks of the older kids. However, he may also be apprehensive about taking on more responsibility and spending recess on a different playground. … Rest assured that these feelings and behaviours are normal and it’s a good idea to tell him so. Share that even teachers feel nervous before school begins again. Go for a walk around the exterior of the school and spend some time in the new playground.

Read the full article here.


 

The top three back-to-school stresses for teens

If you’re the parent of a teenager, here’s more advice to help you anticipate students’ stress, from columnist Anthony E. Wolf:

Talk to them. Let them know that you understand that the beginning of school can be stressful. It can seem a little strange, even overwhelming, getting back into a routine, but all kids feel this way. Reassure them that if they do feel apprehensive about it, they are not alone.

Read the full article here.


 

Kids’ snacks that make the grade

Growing kids need to refuel every two to three hours to keep their blood sugar (glucose) levels stable as sustained blood sugar means kids will have more energy to concentrate in class and participate in after school sports. The added calories from snacks provide an opportunity to boost your child’s intake of important nutrients like calcium, iron and zinc.

What kinds of snacks? Dietician and columnist Leslie Beck suggests things like edamame, trail mix and fresh fruit and yogurt.

Read the full article here.

back to schoolparentsstudentswhat to expect

BCTF members ratify new six-year contract, ending B.C. teachers’ strike

BCTF President Jim Iker announcing ratification vote results on Thursday.

BCTF President Jim Iker announcing ratification vote results on Thursday.

The B.C. Teachers’ Federation membership has voted 86 per cent in favour of a new contract, ending the teachers’ strike that has kept more than half-a-million students out of the classroom.

Of 31,741 ballots cast, 27,275 were in favour of the new six-year contract, BCTF president Jim Iker announced Thursday night. There are roughly 41,000 members in all.

“With the ratification of the new collective agreement, the strike and lockout are now over,” Mr. Iker said. “Teachers and students will be back in school on Monday.”

Mr. Iker said there was a “strong vote of support for the collective agreement” despite the fact the union did not get everything it needs.

“We all know that this deal isn’t perfect, but it does provide gains for teachers, it protects our charter rights, it increases support for our students,” he said.

“There will be more classroom and specialist teachers in schools to help our students; our teachers on call will get fair pay for a day’s work and all our members will get a salary increase.”

However, several teachers have said they are not happy with the new deal. (Read our story on that here.)

Education Minister Peter Fassbender issued the following statement after the BCTF’s announcement:

“We have one of the best public education systems in the world, and that’s in large part because we have such great teachers.

“We can now focus on the path forward. This long-term agreement is an historic opportunity to work together for students – to enhance their education experience and to support their achievements.”

Mr. Iker said no lost time will be made up, though former education minister George Abbott has suggested otherwise:

Meanwhile, Thursday’s turnout was higher than the past few ratification votes:

Find more in the story on our main site here.

bargainingbc liberalsbctfchristy clarkeducationparentspeter cameronstudents

Scenes from teacher ratification votes across B.C.

From Andrea Woo:

Just spoke with five teachers outside the voting site in Vancouver and three of them voted against the tentative agreement. The two who voted for it did so grudgingly, saying they couldn’t afford to lose any more money on the picket lines — some have lost around $10,000 — and that they’re worried public perception will turn against them if they vote no. All of them are disappointed with the agreement, but feel it will pass. Several long-time teachers have told me that if they were just starting out today, they wouldn’t get into teaching.


 

Many local teachers’ associations set up information study sessions and voting meetings for teachers today, and tweets show throngs of teachers eager to participate in the process.

From Coquitlam:

From Saanich:

From Surrey:

From Vancouver:

bctfimagessocial media

What to expect Thursday as B.C. teachers vote on the tentative agreement

 

Brentwood Bay Elementary teachers from left to right: Rhayna Archer, Fiona Mosher, Carmen Di Lucca, Jacqueline Jim and Aimee Lampard in Brentwood Bay, B.C., will be among the teachers voting Thursday on whether to ratify a tentative settlement  that would end the strike which began in June. (Chad Hipolito for The Globe and Mail)

Brentwood Bay Elementary teachers (from left to right) Rhayna Archer, Fiona Mosher, Carmen Di Lucca, Jacqueline Jim and Aimee Lampard in Brentwood Bay, B.C., will be among the teachers voting Thursday on whether to ratify a tentative settlement that would end the strike which began in June. (Chad Hipolito for The Globe and Mail)

B.C.’s 40,000 public-school teachers will cast their votes today on the collective agreement achieved by the union and the government after marathon bargaining sessions over the weekend. Results of the vote will be released at 9:30 p.m. in a news conference by BCTF president Jim Iker (streaming link here), and we’ll have them available in a story on our B.C. teachers’ strike topic page.

Study sessions are being held this morning for members so they can learn more about the proposed six-year deal and ask questions. Online, the union posted a one-page PDF entitled “10 reasons to vote yes” as commentators online debate the merits of the agreement. The proposed contract includes a 7.25 per cent salary increase, improvements in extended health benefits and the teaching-on-call rate, an education fund to address class size and composition issues, and money to address retroactive grievances.

The question being put to teachers is this:

Are you in favour of ratifying the agreement-in-committee reached on September 16, 2014?

The deal must also be ratified by the employer. According to a letter sent to parents in the Central Okanagan school district by superintendent Hugh Gloster, the province’s 60 school districts have until 3 p.m. Friday to complete their own ratification vote. If BCTF members ratify Thursday night, however, schools will be open Friday morning and teachers doing prep work will be on the payroll.

Reported elsewhere

Private schools are reporting an overall 5 per cent uptick in enrolment in B.C. over last year, a sign that some parents weren’t prepared to wait for public schools to open. Rates vary across the province based in part on independent schools’ capacity to accept new students, but history shows the public system may have lost many students for good. Says Peter Froese of the Federation of Independent School Associations of BC:

“In our experience, based on past labour disruptions in the public sector, we find that the families that have chosen independent schools in… our fixed structures — they tend to stay.”


While many questions about the school schedule will be worked out at a local level by school districts or even individual schools, there are mandated hours of instruction for public school students in B.C.:

Under the School Act’s school calendar regulation, school districts must offer the following minimum hours of instruction annually: 853 for kindergarten, 878 for grades 1 to 7, and 952 for grades 8 to 12.

With reports from Justine Hunter, Andrea Woo and The Canadian Press

bctfratificationwhat to expect
Politics Live is part of The Globe and Mail's Globe Politics Network
© Copyright 2014 The Globe and Mail Inc. All Rights Reserved.
444 Front St. W., Toronto, ON Canada M5V 2S9
Phillip Crawley, Publisher