Which Liberal pitch is most successful in wooing New Democrats? - Politics Live - News, commentary and analysis from The Globe and Mail's politics desk

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Which Liberal pitch is most successful in wooing New Democrats?

By Adam Radwanski

In the past couple of days, the Ontario Liberals have been stepping up their efforts to win over people who usually vote NDP – including with this op-ed from Kathleen Wynne in the Toronto Star, and this new ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGSE-HgJp_4&list=PLD808265A188F72E5

These efforts aren’t new: Rallying the centre-left has been the Liberals’ strategy from the outset of this campaign. And as I wrote in my Saturday column, there are signs that it’s working. But it’s also worth looking at what seems to be working, which helps explain the current pitch.

At the outset of this campaign, part of the Liberals’ plan seemed to be to convince people who normally vote NDP that Ms. Wynne spoke to their values better than Andrea Horwath. There may be something to that, since the Liberal Leader seems to have more interest than her NDP counterparts in the sorts of ambitious government projects that traditionally set New Democratic hearts aflutter. But based on the findings of our Listening Post project with Innovative Research Group, it doesn’t look like that values claim has been a main driver behind New Democrats’ apparent willingness to switch their votes.

Here, for instance, is what survey respondents said when asked on June 4 and 5 which leader “stands for what I believe.” As you can see, Ms. Horwath did about as well with New Democrats as Ms. Wynne did with Liberals, and their crossover appeal to each other’s parties was about the same as well.

SOURCE: Innovative Research Group

On another question that related partly to values – which leader “cares about people like me” – Ms. Horwath actually outperforms the other leaders in how she plays to likely supporters, and has better crossover appeal. Here are the numbers:

SOURCE: Innovative Research Group

It’s possible that if we had been doing a similar survey in past elections, when NDP leaders tried to position themselves more as the province’s conscience, their numbers would have been stronger on these sorts of questions. But Ms. Horwath made a conscious effort to broaden her appeal by presenting herself as someone who could seriously compete for power on the basis of a pragmatic and practical agenda.

The catch is that effort seems to be a bit of a bust. She still struggles, it appears, to be taken seriously even by some New Democrats as a candidate for the province’s top office. Have a look at the responses to the question of who would make the best premier, and note the share of habitual NDP voters who pick Ms. Wynne instead of Ms. Horwath.

SOURCE: Innovative Research Group

Her struggle on that question ties in to what is by all appearances her biggest problem, and the Liberals’ biggest success in this campaign: the perception that, however much one may like Ms. Horwath, a vote for her is wasted because she has no chance of winning.

Here are self-identified New Democrats’ responses to that very question. Or, as it was phrased in the survey with an agree/disagree choice: “I like Andrea Horwath and the NDP, but I’m worried that voting for them will only help Tim Hudak and the PCs get elected win the election.”

SOURCE: Innovative Research Group

Nearly half of people who usually vote for them agreeing with that statement is a really big problem for the NDP. To understand just how big a problem, consider that in a different question, 78 per cent of New Democrats agreed – and 64 per cent strongly agreed – they’re “afraid” of what the Tories would do in office.

All these factors would help to explain why, it would appear, a good number of New Democrats are willing to set aside their qualms with Ms Wynne’s party at least this once. Here, finally, is how each party’s usual supporters responded to the question: “The Liberals have their problems, but they are still the best party to form government.”

SOURCE: Innovative Research Group

If 29 per cent of people who usually vote for you agree that another party is best to form government – and 14 per cent strongly agree – you’re almost certainly bleeding a lot of votes.

Conversely, if you’re the party benefiting from that, you’ve got your best shot at holding on to office. It may not be for quite the values-driven reasons Ms. Wynne might have hoped, but if it works out she probably won’t complain.

(Responses were drawn from a survey conducted on June 4 and 5 in which 1,100 eligible Ontario voters participated. Asked which party they usually support, 31 per cent of respondents said Liberal, 25 per cent Progressive Conservative, 16 per cent NDP, and 4 per cent Green or other; 15 per cent said they don’t identify with any party and 8 per cent didn’t know.

As parties get more sophisticated in targeting messages to individual voters, we want to get as many people as possible involved in helping us keep track of those messages and how they’re delivering them. If you’d be willing to help us tell the story of this campaign by keeping a campaign diary to let us know who contacted you and uploading campaign material, or maybe giving your reaction to ads, issues and events, you can sign up for the Listening Post Network here.)

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JJ June poised this question: #AskTheGlobe Fact Check “Harper says ‘most’ cases of murdered aboriginal women are solved.” CP Oct. 6/15

Kathryn Blaze Baum, a national reporter who covers the issue of missing and murdered indigenous women for The Globe gave this response:

First, it is important to note that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s comment was made in the context of an inquiry into both missing and murdered indigenous women. Indigenous leaders and Canada’s premiers have been calling for a federal probe to better understand why aboriginal women are disproportionately more likely to disappear or be killed and also to determine how to tackle the violence.

In 2014, the RCMP released an unprecedented report looking at police-recorded incidents of missing and murdered indigenous women across the country. It found that between 1980 and 2012, there were 1,017 homicides and 164 outstanding missing-person cases. Within that time period, there are 225 unsolved cases: 105 women have been missing for more than 30 days and their disappearances are categorized as either “foul play suspected” or “unknown,” and 120 homicide cases have not been solved.

It is true, then, that most homicides involving indigenous women have been solved. As stated in the RCMP report: “The majority of all female homicides are solved (close to 90%) and there is little difference in solve rates between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal victims.”

But this is not the whole picture.

It is important to understand what the RCMP means when it says “solved.” The report indicates that, for the purposes of the study, the term is used synonymously with “clearance rate.” Here is how clearance rate is defined, in one of the footnotes:

“Clearance refers to whether or not a homicide incident was cleared: (1) either by the laying, or recommending of a charge to the Crown; or (2) where at least one suspect has been identified and against whom there is sufficient evidence to lay a charge, but where the incident is cleared otherwise (e.g. the suicide or death of the chargeable suspect … ).”

This means that if police recommend charges but the Crown decides not to proceed, or if an accused is charged but later acquitted, the case is still considered solved. A killing, then, could be deemed solved without a conviction.

Put simply, the police might consider a case cleared, but the victim’s family may still be waiting for justice.

Furthermore, it is possible that some of the 105 unresolved cases involving missing indigenous women, whose disappearances are categorized as “foul play suspected” or “unknown,” are actually unsolved homicide cases.

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One of our Ottawa corespondents, John Ibbitson, answers this question.

The NDP has traditionally opposed free trade agreements, saying that they lead to lower labour and environmental standards, job losses and foreign interference/loss of sovereignty.

Under Thomas Mulcair the party has modified its stance, supporting the free trade agreement with South Korea and supporting in principle the free trade agreement with Europe, although it is withholding full approval until it sees the final, legally-vetted document. The party had no stated position on the Trans Pacific Partnership other than it supports free and fair trade.

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Finally joey wonders: if The NDP have said they won’t necessarily uphold an agreement PCs may reach in TPP. Have the liberals commented their stance? #asktheglobe

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(Want to know more about the TPP? Our explainer can be found here.)

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