Which Liberal pitch is most successful in wooing New Democrats?
In the past couple of days, the Ontario Liberals have been stepping up their efforts to win over people who usually vote NDP – including with this op-ed from Kathleen Wynne in the Toronto Star, and this new ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGSE-HgJp_4&list=PLD808265A188F72E5
These efforts aren’t new: Rallying the centre-left has been the Liberals’ strategy from the outset of this campaign. And as I wrote in my Saturday column, there are signs that it’s working. But it’s also worth looking at what seems to be working, which helps explain the current pitch.
At the outset of this campaign, part of the Liberals’ plan seemed to be to convince people who normally vote NDP that Ms. Wynne spoke to their values better than Andrea Horwath. There may be something to that, since the Liberal Leader seems to have more interest than her NDP counterparts in the sorts of ambitious government projects that traditionally set New Democratic hearts aflutter. But based on the findings of our Listening Post project with Innovative Research Group, it doesn’t look like that values claim has been a main driver behind New Democrats’ apparent willingness to switch their votes.
Here, for instance, is what survey respondents said when asked on June 4 and 5 which leader “stands for what I believe.” As you can see, Ms. Horwath did about as well with New Democrats as Ms. Wynne did with Liberals, and their crossover appeal to each other’s parties was about the same as well.
SOURCE: Innovative Research Group
On another question that related partly to values – which leader “cares about people like me” – Ms. Horwath actually outperforms the other leaders in how she plays to likely supporters, and has better crossover appeal. Here are the numbers:
SOURCE: Innovative Research Group
It’s possible that if we had been doing a similar survey in past elections, when NDP leaders tried to position themselves more as the province’s conscience, their numbers would have been stronger on these sorts of questions. But Ms. Horwath made a conscious effort to broaden her appeal by presenting herself as someone who could seriously compete for power on the basis of a pragmatic and practical agenda.
The catch is that effort seems to be a bit of a bust. She still struggles, it appears, to be taken seriously even by some New Democrats as a candidate for the province’s top office. Have a look at the responses to the question of who would make the best premier, and note the share of habitual NDP voters who pick Ms. Wynne instead of Ms. Horwath.
SOURCE: Innovative Research Group
Her struggle on that question ties in to what is by all appearances her biggest problem, and the Liberals’ biggest success in this campaign: the perception that, however much one may like Ms. Horwath, a vote for her is wasted because she has no chance of winning.
Here are self-identified New Democrats’ responses to that very question. Or, as it was phrased in the survey with an agree/disagree choice: “I like Andrea Horwath and the NDP, but I’m worried that voting for them will only help Tim Hudak and the PCs get elected win the election.”
SOURCE: Innovative Research Group
Nearly half of people who usually vote for them agreeing with that statement is a really big problem for the NDP. To understand just how big a problem, consider that in a different question, 78 per cent of New Democrats agreed – and 64 per cent strongly agreed – they’re “afraid” of what the Tories would do in office.
All these factors would help to explain why, it would appear, a good number of New Democrats are willing to set aside their qualms with Ms Wynne’s party at least this once. Here, finally, is how each party’s usual supporters responded to the question: “The Liberals have their problems, but they are still the best party to form government.”
SOURCE: Innovative Research Group
If 29 per cent of people who usually vote for you agree that another party is best to form government – and 14 per cent strongly agree – you’re almost certainly bleeding a lot of votes.
Conversely, if you’re the party benefiting from that, you’ve got your best shot at holding on to office. It may not be for quite the values-driven reasons Ms. Wynne might have hoped, but if it works out she probably won’t complain.
(Responses were drawn from a survey conducted on June 4 and 5 in which 1,100 eligible Ontario voters participated. Asked which party they usually support, 31 per cent of respondents said Liberal, 25 per cent Progressive Conservative, 16 per cent NDP, and 4 per cent Green or other; 15 per cent said they don’t identify with any party and 8 per cent didn’t know.
As parties get more sophisticated in targeting messages to individual voters, we want to get as many people as possible involved in helping us keep track of those messages and how they’re delivering them. If you’d be willing to help us tell the story of this campaign by keeping a campaign diary to let us know who contacted you and uploading campaign material, or maybe giving your reaction to ads, issues and events, you can sign up for the Listening Post Network here.)